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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-6 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |