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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min15-60 min5-20 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-93-202-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationEffortAgile
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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