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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | FailureResilienceRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |