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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | FailureResilienceRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |