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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 30-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | FailureResilienceRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |