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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of Value Chain Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Value Chain Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min5-20 minHalf day45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-203-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsValue Chain Map, Lever ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationEffortRisk
StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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