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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | Half day | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-20 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationEffortRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |