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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile Bucket System |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 30-90 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-20 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |