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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min5-20 min45-90 min15-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-202-82-9
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
EstimationEffortAgile
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