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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min5-20 min45-60 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-83-202-81-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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