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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 5-20 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-20 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationEffortRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |