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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-90 min1-3 h20-45 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-82-81-10
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage PointsBehavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics
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