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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-10 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ChangeDecisionStrategy |