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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |