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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-4 h | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationEffortAgile |