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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min | 0.5-3 Tage | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-10 | 5-15 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals |