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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of VUCA Scan with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
VUCA Scan
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Cynefin Workshop.
Decision Making
Cynefin Workshop
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min30-90 min1-4 Wochen60-180 min
Participantsdifferent
3-201-106-30 Experten4-20
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsVUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning PlanExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ComplexitySensemakingDecision
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