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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min | 45-90 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |