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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min | 1-3 h | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | SensemakingDecisionRationale | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |