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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min10-30 min je Item0.5-2 Tage1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-201-84-126-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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