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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |