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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | Nutzertraffic | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |