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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min20–45 min1-5 Tage1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-20Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic1-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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