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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Gap Analysis method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
GAP Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min20–45 min1-3 h1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-20Small cross-functional group2-86-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logGap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
StrategyAnalysisPlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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