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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Incident Command workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Incident Command
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.During an acute incident with several people involved, the method creates a clear leadership and communication structure. It reduces chaos when fast coordination and clean situational awareness are both needed at once.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min15-45 minHalber TagAs needed
Participantsdifferent
3-201-85-204-15
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksIncident Log, Action Tracker, Stakeholder Updates
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ResilienceOperationsIncident
IncidentOperationsReliability
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