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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min15-45 minHalber Tag2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
3-201-85-203-10
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ResilienceOperationsIncident
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
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