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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min15-45 min15-30 min1-4 h
Participantsdifferent
3-201-82-63-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
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