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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min1 h bis mehrere Wochen1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-201-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsPDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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