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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-5 Tage | laufend | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 4-12 | 2-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | EstimationForecastingFlow | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |