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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min45-90 min20–45 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-203-8Small cross-functional group6-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsImpact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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