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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min15-60 minMultiple workshops over several weeks15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-92-81-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics checkPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
EstimationEffortAgile
GrowthBehaviorRetention
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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