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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min30-120 min1 h bis mehrere Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-61-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasPDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangeAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
LeanObservationProcessOperations
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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