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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min60-120 min45-90 minMultiple workshops over several weeks
Participantsdifferent
3-203-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanHooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
GrowthRetentionConversion
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
GrowthBehaviorRetention
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