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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Knowledge Modeling Event Modeling |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Event Modeling connects business workflows with commands, events, and views into one coherent mental model. It helps design behavior, UI, and technical slices from the same underlying logic. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 2-6 h | 15-45 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Event Model, UI Flow, Commands, Read Models | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | EventsBlueprintDomain-Driven DesignBehavior | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |