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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
5-20 min60-120 min1-5 Tage1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
3-202-8Nutzertraffic1-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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