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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min60-120 min2-4 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-83-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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