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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 60-120 min | 2-4 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |