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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 15-45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 4-10 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |