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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |