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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min45-90 minHalf day45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-83-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanStress Test Report, Action Plan per ScenarioAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tags1 shared
EstimationEffortRisk
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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