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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for ABC Analysis
Operations
ABC Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.With many similar objects of differing economic significance, the method prioritizes effort by effect. It separates what needs regular steering from what rarely needs attention.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min30-60 min45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-201-52-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsABC Classification, Focus Rules, Control ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
PrioritizationOperationsPortfolio
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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