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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
5-20 min45-90 min45-90 min15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-52-82-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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