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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Decision Making Trade-off Analysis |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | With limited resources, quality, speed, cost, and risk almost always compete with each other. Trade-off Analysis makes these tensions explicit and prevents decisions from producing hidden side effects. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-120 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Trade-off Matrix, Criteria List, Decision Rationale, Accepted Downsides | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | TradeoffsDecisionCriteriaOptions | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |