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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |