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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | DecisionTreeOptions | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |