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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Ansoff Matrix |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | The Ansoff Matrix organizes growth options by market and product relation. It helps weigh expansion, diversification, and adaptation cleanly against each other. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 45-90 min | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Ansoff Matrix, Growth Options, Risk Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | GrowthStrategyMarketPortfolio | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight |