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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 90-180 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-10 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | ForecastingFlowDelivery |