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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ForecastingFlowDelivery |