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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Business Strategy Ansoff Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | The Ansoff Matrix organizes growth options by market and product relation. It helps weigh expansion, diversification, and adaptation cleanly against each other. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Ansoff Matrix, Growth Options, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | GrowthStrategyMarketPortfolio |