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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Business Strategy Ansoff Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The Ansoff Matrix organizes growth options by market and product relation. It helps weigh expansion, diversification, and adaptation cleanly against each other. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 45-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Ansoff Matrix, Growth Options, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | GrowthStrategyMarketPortfolio |